For billions of people around the world, things are pretty uncertain now. Hundreds of millions have lost their jobs. Businesses of all sizes – but especially smaller and newer businesses, many start-ups – are in trouble. Many have already folded.
The experts predict a recession the likes of which we haven’t seen in anyone’s lifetime. But there may be one sector that – as the dust settles – might even grow faster as a result of the pandemic.
Information and communications technology has come to the fore as country after country locked down, commanding businesses who could to let their employees work from home. This would not have been possible a generation ago for the vast majority. Most homes did not have computers, and almost no homes had Internet. Now, it’s the reverse.
While some household name brands have run into serious difficulties, new brands have become household names in the last 3 months – companies like Zoom, for example. “Zooming” is now as much a thing as “hoovering”.
Meanwhile, tens of thousands of established businesses have had their digital transformations stress-tested for the first time, and have found them wanting. From extreme cases like UK retailer Primark, who effectively had no online capability, to old hands in every sector who’ve invested billions in digital over the last 30 years, it seems most were not quite as “digital” as it turns out they needed to be.
From customer-facing transactions to internal business processes, the pandemic has revealed gaps that were being filled by people necessarily co-located in offices and shops and factories and so on. A client of mine, for example, still doesn’t have the ability to sign up new suppliers without a human being in the accounts department to access the mainframe via one of the dedicated terminals. They are rushing now to close that gap, but their mainframe skills base has dwindled to the point where nobody knows how. So they have to hire someone with COBOL skills to make the changes on that side, and C# skills to write the web front end for it. Good luck with that!
I’m noticing these digital gaps everywhere. Most organisations have them. They were missed because the processes still worked, thanks to the magic of People Going To OfficesTM. But now those gaps have been laid bare for everyone to see (and for customers and suppliers to experience).
Here’s the thing: thing’s aren’t going back to normal. The virus is going to be with us for some time, and even after we’ve tamed it with a vaccine or new treatments, everyone will be thinking about the next new virus. Just as COVID-19 leaves it mark on people it infects, the pandemic will leave its mark on our civilisation. We will adapt to a new normal. And a big component of that new normal will be digital technology. As wars accelerate science and technology, so too will COVID-19 accelerate digital innovation.
And it’s a match made in heaven, because this innovation can largely be done from our homes, thanks to… digital technology! It’s a self-accelerating evolution.
So, I have an inkling we’re going to be very busy in the near future.